The Office of National Statistics (ONS) publish population projections based on mid-year population estimates and a set of assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. There is always a degree of uncertainty around population projections because there are many unknown factors. The ONS advises us that –
‘Population projections are not forecasts and, as such, do not attempt to predict the impact of government policies, development aims, changing economic or political circumstances such as Brexit’
For more advice see Subnational population projections frequently asked questions
The projections are produced every two years. The latest ones are based on the 2016 mid-year population estimates. We are expecting the 2018-based projections to be available in March 2020.
Use the interactive population pyramid below to explore how the size and age structure of the population is projected to change between 2016 and 2041.
Type ‘Leeds’ in the search box and choose another area for comparison. Try locking the outline at 2016 and then moving forwards to 2026. Here are a few things to notice in the Leeds pyramid –
Increase in the population of teenagers.
The well-defined peak at age 69 in 2016 (and age 79 in 2026) is people born in 1946 after the Second World War.
The more sustained baby boom of the early 1960s can be seen in the big bulge around the 50-55 age group in 2016. This bulge moves into the over 60s age group in 2026.